Mon 10/7 eve: Sinclar and Stone on “Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020”

Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020
Monday, October 7, 2019 5:45 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.
Rm 483 Ford House Office Building
2nd & D Streets, SW
Washington, DC 20515
Metro: Federal Center SW Station

Panelists:
Dr. Tara Sinclar, Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University
Dr. Chad Stone, Chief Economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm.    The seminar is free but please email Mel Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q&A and discussion.

According to the IMF World Economic Outlook global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020. However, possible further disruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, continued conflicts with Iran, the slowdown in China, uncertainties of Brexit on Britain and the European Union, the economic effects of global warming, or other contingencies may seriously affect growth prospects. In the U.S. a tariff war, especially with China, may help bring about a recession in 2020.

Dr. Chad Stone and Dr. Tara Sinclar will explore the possibilities of recession occurring in the U.S. or internationally in 2020. Please join us for this interesting evening.

Mon 5/13 eve: Meltzer and Destler on “Bilateral v. Multilateral Trade, and Tariffs”

Bilateral vs. Multilateral Trade, and Tariffs
Monday, May 13, 2019 5:45 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.
Rm 483 Ford House Office Building
2nd & D Streets, SW
Washington, DC 20515
Metro: Federal Center SW Station

Panelists:
Joshua Meltzer, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
I.M. ‘Mac’ Destler, Saul Stern Professor, University of Maryland

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm.    The seminar is free but please email Mel Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q&A and discussion.

The present administration has made lessening the trade deficit a priority and has imposed tariffs, mainly with China and the European Union, Mexico and Canada if the U.S, trade deficit with those countries has not ameliorated. The target countries have in turn imposed their own tariffs on U.S. goods.  The administration has not pursued multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and some contend this has left trade with the United States isolated in Asia and other regions.

What effects would a trade war have on the U.S. and the global economies, and would any benefits accrue to the administration’s actions is one of the questions the panelists would attempt to answer.  Joshua Meltzer and I.M. ‘Mac’ Destler will  offer their perspectives and analysis on these issues.

Call for Papers: 2020 ASSA/SGE Sessions in San Diego, CA, January 3-5, 2020

Call for Papers (due date is May 16th, 2019)
2020 ASSA/SGE Sessions in San Diego, CA, January 3-5, 2020

The Society of Government Economists’ mission is to support the professional development of government economists, and those who are interested in public policy economics, by providing them with research, publication, and professional communication opportunities. SGE has seven sessions in the 2020 ASSA meeting. These sessions will provide economists the opportunity to present their research, discuss it with their peers, and receive feedback as well as to meet other economists and be informed about the latest topics in economics. This call for papers and sessions is open to all individuals (applicants need not be government economists).

Sessions will be designed to provide valuable contributions to existing knowledge and understanding, and to improve how economics is practiced. They should better enable economists to observe and understand the nature and causes of economic factors, which will, in turn, enhance their ability to contribute to public decision making.

In the case of proposed papers, the Society will organize selected papers into sessions and invite discussants and chairs to those sessions.

All participants are required to register and pay for the conference that they attend. In addition, for each submission, at least one author of each paper has an active SGE membership.  The submission will not be processed if the requirement is not met. The annual membership fee of $30 can be purchased using PayPal on the SGE website.

To propose an individual paper, include: (1) a brief sentence describing the paper,  (2) the title of the paper and the names and contact information (including email addresses) and affiliations for each of the authors, (3) a brief abstract (of no more than 300 words) describing the paper, and (4) 2 JEL codes. Do NOT send a draft of the paper. To propose an entire session, include: (1) The title, organizer, and chair of the session, (2) all of the above-mentioned information required of individual-paper proposals for each of the papers in the session (for 4 papers), and (3) the names and contact information for all discussants and which papers they will discuss.

The due date is May 16th, 2019 (Thursday). To submit papers or sessions, please go to http://www.sge-econ.org/.

Please direct all questions or concerns to Wendy Li, wendycyli@gmail.com.

SGE Conference April 5, 2019

The Society of Government Economists Annual Conference includes papers and sessions on economic topics relating to 1) government programs or public policy at local, national and international levels, 2) improvements and changes in government economic surveys, data, and measures, and 3) research on microeconomic and macroeconomic trends and issues that inform and impact policy.

Take a look at the program at this link, and register at this link.

The Conference will occur Friday, April 5, 2019, 8:30am-4:30pm, at the Janet Norwood Conference and Training Center, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Massachusetts Ave, NE, Washington, DC.

Registration fee is $65. Regular registration has been extended through April 2, to accommodate processing of training requests for some agencies. On -site registration will cost $85. (If you have problems with online registration of conference fee please contact conferencechair@sge-econ.org for assistance.)

Fees this year are the same for presenters and attendees, and students can register for free.


Thurs 2/7 Noon: William Wiatrowski, “Update on the labor market from BLS” at 618 H Street NW

Speaker: William Wiatrowski, Deputy Commissioner (Acting Commissioner), Bureau of Labor Statistics

William J. Wiatrowski is Deputy Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the senior career employee in the agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy. Bill began his career at BLS in 1980 and served in a number of positions before his selection as Deputy Commissioner in June 2015. Mr. Wiatrowski received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and the History of Art from Yale University and a Masters of Business Administration degree from the George Washington University.

Abstract of talk:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) carries out surveys to measure U.S. labor market conditions. Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski will provide an overview of current activities at BLS and give an update on current economic and labor conditions using data from several BLS programs.

Note: 

Registration is open through Wednesday, 2-6-19, but walk-ins are welcome.  The lunch is hosted jointly with the NEC. Lunch is included. The cost is $20 for NEC and SGE members, and BLS employees can use code BLS2019 when you register to get the member price.  The cost is $35 for non-members. Credit Card payment is non refundable but you may substitute someone in your place for attendance. Visit https://www.national-economists.org/nec-events/ for registration information.

SGE Conference Sessions at the ASSA in Atlanta, GA

Society of Government Economists Conference Sessions at the Allied Social Science Meetings (ASSA) in Atlanta, GA

January 4-6, 2019

Hilton Atlanta Hotel, Conference room 314 for all SGE sessions

255 Courtland Street NE, Atlanta, Georgia, 30303, USA


SGE has organized 7 sessions as part of the ASSA meetings. This is a handy reference to keep track of the times and topics.


SGE members and friends are invited to an

INFORMAL NETWORKING LUNCH

January 4, 2019

Conference Rm 314 Hilton Atlanta

12:30-2:00pm

Boxed lunches will be provided at no charge on a first-come first-serve basis.


Click here to see the program.


Mon 11/5 eve: Guzzetti, Timothy, and Grossman on “Light Rail Transit”

Light Rail Transit
Monday, November 5, 2018 5:45 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.
Rm 483 Ford House Office Building
2nd & D Streets, SW
Washington, DC 20515
Metro: Federal Center SW Station

Panelists:

Arthur Guzzetti, Vice President-Policy, American Public Transportation Association

Darren Timothy, Chief Economist, US Department of Transportation

Alice Grossman, Policy Analyst, Eno Center for Transportation

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Jack Ventura at jack.ventura@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q & A and discussion.

Light rail transit, a descendant as it were of trolley cars or streetcars going back to the 19th century, took the form it’s known as today in the 1970’s. The mode continues to be introduced and extended in many U.S. cities, and often has the advantage of speed, rights-of-way and greater capacity than buses but less expensive than subways. However, questions have arisen as to user demand and efficiency relative to, say, bus rapid transit in terms of cost and reducing urban traffic congestion.

Our panelists will offer their perspectives on these issues, based on work they or their organizations have done.

Art Guzzetti is a 39 year veteran of public transportation at the local, state and national levels. The American Public Transportation Association, where he now serves, is the trade group representing the public transportation industry in the United States. Among other things, he is responsible for APTA’s extensive policy research agenda, policy analysis and development, transportation information and statistics. Prior to coming to APTA in June 1997, Mr. Guzzetti had 16 years in management at two of the nation’s leading public transportation systems: New Jersey Transit, and Port Authority of Allegheny County, plus two years at the New Jersey Department of Transportation. In short, career focus has been on generating support for public transportation and the benefits it provides to communities and regions.

Mr. Guzzetti has a Political Science degree from Edinboro State University, and a Master of Public Administration Degree from the University of Pittsburgh.

Darren Timothy has served as the Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) since January 2017. In this capacity, he leads the Department’s efforts to apply economic principles and methods in analyses of policies, programs, projects, and regulations produced by the Department and its operating administrations. Dr. Timothy’s prior experience has included positions in academia and consulting as well as other agencies within USDOT, including the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Transit Administration.

Dr. Timothy holds a B.A. from Brigham Young University and a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, both in Economics

Alice Grossman, as a policy analyst at the Eno Center for Transportation, conducts research in various areas of multimodal transportation. Dr. Grossman has worked extensively on research relating to metropolitan transportation planning and performance measurement, electronic travel diary development, K-12 and higher education in transportation, active transportation safety, and pedestrian infrastructure asset management and accessibility.

Dr. Grossman completed her B.A. at Vassar College in Physics and Astronomy, and her Ph.D. at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Civil Engineering. Dr. Grossman was Eno’s 2017 Thomas J. O’Bryant fellow.

Thurs 10/25 Noon: Melanie Duncan, “Information Sharing: A Reduction in Terrorist Finance?” at 618 H Street NW

Speaker: Melanie Duncan, University of Phoenix

Melanie Duncan is a Doctoral Candidate with the University of Phoenix studying a Doctorate of Management in Information Systems Technology. Melanie has 18 years of Federal Government experience that includes work with U.S. Joint Forces Command, Commander Naval Air Pacific Fleet, and the Naval Facilities Engineering Command Desert Team. Her affiliations include the Center for Global Research and Information Technology through the School of Advanced Studies as well as a participant in The World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law Group on LinkedIn.

Abstract of talk:

Terrorists are continuing to adopt new strategies for funding terrorist activities. National security partners and the definition of what constitutes a national security partner for sharing information appears to have remained the same. While information sharing may have increased among national security partners, the macroeconomic aspect may have been overlooked. Preparedness levels may be affected by the organizational culture, multiplicity of information sharing amongst governmental organizations, and partners that include private financial sector companies, and terrorist finance regulation within the banking industry. In this talk, Melanie Duncan will discuss what innovations national security partnership may look like for government entities if such variables as lack of knowledge sharing, cooperation, and information sharing were introduced.

Hosted jointly with the NEC. Credit Card payment is non refundable but you may substitute someone in your place for attendance. Visit https://www.national-economists.org/nec-events/ for registration information.

Thurs 6/28 Noon: Lucia Foster, “Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty” at 618 H Street NW

Speaker: Lucia Foster, Chief of Center for Economic Studies, Chief Economist, Census Bureau

Abstract of talk:

The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey collected innovative 5-bin data on own future outcomes and probabilities for shipments, employment, capital and materials expenditures at 35,000 manufacturing plants. About 85% of plants provide logically sensible responses to the 5-bin questions, suggesting that most managers can form and express (subjective) probability distributions. The other 15% of plants have lower productivity, employment, wages, managerial education, structured management scores, and multinational ownership. First and second moments of plant-level subjective probability distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes, suggesting that our subjective expectations data are well founded. Finally, our plant-level subjective uncertainty measures correlate positively with realized stock-return volatility, option-implied volatility and analyst disagreement about future earnings for the plant’s parent firm and for the median publicly listed firm in the plant’s industry.

Hosted jointly with the NEC. Credit Card payment is non refundable but you may substitute someone in your place for attendance. Visit https://www.national-economists.org/nec-events/ for registration information.

Wed 5/30 Evening: Michael Mandel, “The Surprising Economics of E-Commerce and Brick and Mortar Retail” at 2nd & D SW

Speaker: Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist, Progressive Policy Institute

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm. The seminar is free but please email Jack Ventura at jack.ventura@verizon.net for reservations.

Abstract of talk:

E-commerce sales are soaring. According to the Census Bureau, they are up 16.4% from the previous year, as against 4.5% for total retail sales. Surprisingly, however, the online shopping boom has been accompanied by the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs at e-commerce fulfillment centers around the country. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar retail establishments, rather than cutting back, have been trying to raise the skill level of their employees to differentiate themselves from online.

This seminar will explore the economics of e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retail, focusing on employment, wages, and productivity. It will also deal with the importance of the automation of logistics. What does the continuing shift to e-commerce portend for consumer choice and prices and for the survival and employment of retail stores? Michael Mandel will address these questions.

Dr. Mandel was interviewed on the PBS News Hour on this subject this past year. Besides his position at Progressive Policy Institute, he holds an appointment as senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the University of Pennsylvania, and serves as president and founder of South Mountain Economics LLC, which provides expertise on emerging occupations and emerging industries.