An Anatomy of Jobless Recoveries: Will Employment Lag Output in 2009-2010 as it did in 2001-03? If Not, Why Not?
Dr Robert J. Gordon, Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Northwestern University.
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee delayed its declaration of November 2001 as the trough recession month for more than 18 months, due to the persistent decline of employment for 18 months after the output trough of November 2001. Assuming that the output trough will ultimately be dated at May or June 2009, similar behavior in the current recession and recovery would imply that employment will continue to decline until the end of 2010. This talk lays out the differences between the past six recessions and argues that there are good reasons why the long lag of employment in the 2001-03 recovery was special and will not be repeated this time.