Thurs 6/28 Noon: Lucia Foster, “Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty” at 618 H Street NW

Speaker: Lucia Foster, Chief of Center for Economic Studies, Chief Economist, Census Bureau

Abstract of talk:

The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey collected innovative 5-bin data on own future outcomes and probabilities for shipments, employment, capital and materials expenditures at 35,000 manufacturing plants. About 85% of plants provide logically sensible responses to the 5-bin questions, suggesting that most managers can form and express (subjective) probability distributions. The other 15% of plants have lower productivity, employment, wages, managerial education, structured management scores, and multinational ownership. First and second moments of plant-level subjective probability distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes, suggesting that our subjective expectations data are well founded. Finally, our plant-level subjective uncertainty measures correlate positively with realized stock-return volatility, option-implied volatility and analyst disagreement about future earnings for the plant’s parent firm and for the median publicly listed firm in the plant’s industry.

Hosted jointly with the NEC. Credit Card payment is non refundable but you may substitute someone in your place for attendance. Visit https://www.national-economists.org/nec-events/ for registration information.