SGE Meetings
June Monthly Luncheon
Thursday, June 21
"The Evolution of Earnings and Income Volatility"
Doug Elmendorf, Brookings Institute
Karen Dynan, Federal Reserve Board
Dan Sichel, Federal Reserve Board
Summary:
We estimate that household income has become substantially more volatile during the past thirty years. After adjusting for apparent measurement changes in our dataset, individuals' labor earnings appear to have become a little less volatile over time. However, households' labor earnings look to have become somewhat more volatile, due to the relationship between earnings levels and volatilities of earnings for men and women. Further, capital income and transfer income have become more volatile. All told, we estimate that the volatility of total household income rose about one-third between the early 1970s and early 2000s. The boost in volatility of household income appears to have occurred throughout the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, albeit not at a steady pace.
Bios:
Karen Dynan is the chief of the Household and Real Estate Finance Section in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Federal Reserve Board. She received her Ph.D. from Harvard University and her A.B from Brown University. Karen has been on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board since 1992, but has taken leave to serve as a visiting assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University (1998) and as a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers (2003-2004). Her research interests include household consumption and saving decisions, household indebtedness, and the effects of financial innovation on economic volatility.
Doug Elmendorf is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he will become co-editor of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity in 2008. He was previously an assistant professor at Harvard University, a principal analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department, and an assistant director of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board.
Dan Sichel is an Assistant Director in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board. He works on a range of macroeconomic issues and has oversight responsibility for analysis of fiscal policy and budget issues. Dan came to the Fed in 1988 after earning his Ph.D. in Economics at Princeton University. He remained at the Fed until 1993, when he joined the Brookings Institution as a Research Associate. In 1995, he became the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Policy at the Department of Treasury, a position he held until 1996, when he returned to the Fed. Dan earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in public policy from the University of Michigan in 1983. Dan’s research interests are in productivity, technology, macroeconomics, and growth.
Chinatown Garden Restaurant 618 H St., NW,
Washington Metro: Gallery Place (Red, Green, and Yellow Lines). Restaurant is 1/2 block east of the Metro station's northern (H Street) exit.
Reservations by 11:30 am June 20th, to Jonathan Schwabish Jonathan.Schwabish@cbo.gov or 202-226-5667.
$15 for SGE and NEC members $20 for non-members