Seminars

April 16th at noon

Thursday, April 8th, 2021

Housing Markets and Policy

Friday Virtual Seminar Series
April 16, 2021
12 noon to 1:45 pm
ET

This seminar is free.  Pre-registration is required. Register in advance at this Zoom link. Maximum capacity is 100 participants.

This session features three papers on the timely topic of housing, a sector of the economy that is once again garnering attention in the news and continues to inspire interesting academic research. The first paper examines the housing market’s rent response to changes in supply, drawing evidence from a recent sizable expansion to Washington DC’s apartment housing stock. Also using data from the DC market, the second paper investigates whether “green buildings” (with LEED certification) garner a rental premium, consistent with potential savings on utilities and operating expenses. The third paper exploits variation in housing tax policy to explore how education and earnings outcomes later in life are affected by growing up in Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) housing.

ChairScott Wentland (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Impact of an Increasing Housing Supply on Housing Prices: The Case of the District of Columbia, 2000-2018
Bethel L. Cole-Smith (Howard University) and Daniel Muhammad (Government of DC)

The Effect of Green-Building Certification on Housing Rental Prices in the District of Columbia
Nyanya Browne (Howard University) and Daniel Muhammad (Government of DC)

Does Growing Up in Tax-subsidized Housing Lead to Higher Earnings and Educational Attainment?
Elena C. Derby (Joint Committee on Taxation)

DiscussantsJustin Contat (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Abdul Munisib (US Bureau of Economic Analysis); Jeremy Moulton (UNC-Chapel Hill)

Webinar: Economic Growth During Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout

Friday, March 26th, 2021

Wednesday, April 7, 2021, 5:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m

This seminar is free.  Pre-registration is required. Register in advance at this zoom link. Maximum capacity is 100 participants.

Panelists:

Dr. Jeff Werling, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office

Dr. Wendy Edelberg, Director, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution

During the year from March 2020 until March 2021 over thirty million cases and 540 thousand deaths occurred in the United States from the covid-19 pandemic and 122 million cases and 2,690 deaths occurred worldwide. It was the worst health crisis since the influenza pandemic of 1918.

The economic devastation has been severe. Total U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 20.5 million to the low point in April 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic could result in net losses in the range of $3.2 trillion to $4.8 trillion in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) over the course of two years, according to estimates from a new University of Southern California study. 

Vaccines for Covid-19 give hope that the world can return to normal. Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech developed mRNA vaccines. Johnson & Johnson, the third vaccine in the U.S., was approved for emergency use in February 2021.

Our panelists will present perspectives on these issues, followed by Q&A and discussion.

Dr. Jeff Werling is Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Congressional Budget Office. Prior to that position Dr. Werling was President of the Interindustry Economic Research Fund Inc.  Werling received a Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Maryland in 1992.

Dr. Wendy Edelberg is Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brooking Institution and Senior Fellow in Economic Studies.  Prior to that appointment Dr. Edelberg was Chief Economist at the Congressional Budget Office. Edelberg received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago.

Webinar: Economic Growth During Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout

March 12th at noon

Sunday, March 7th, 2021

Consumption and Living Standards

Friday Virtual Seminar Series
March 12, 2021
12 noon to 1:15 pm
ET

This seminar is free.  Pre-registration is required. Register in advance at this Zoom link. Maximum capacity is 100 participants.

This session features two research papers on consumption and living standards. The first paper examines how living standards vary across the U.S. and discusses how each state’s welfare has evolved overtime. The second paper looks at the impact of oil booms on income inequality in the U.S. It examines both oil price variation and quantity booms from oil discoveries and discusses measures of state-level income inequality.

ChairMisty L. Heggeness (US Census Bureau)

A Comparison of Living Standards Across the United States of America
Elena Falcettoni  (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Vegard M. Nygaard (University of Houston)

Natural Resources and Inequality: Evidence from the United States
Loujaina Abdelwahed (Cooper Union) and Richard Campbell (University of Illinois at Chicago)

DiscussantsThesia Garner (Bureau of Labor Statistics); Kalee Burns (US Census Bureau)

February 5th noon seminar

Sunday, January 31st, 2021

Macro and Banking

Friday Virtual Seminar Series

Friday February 5, 2021

12:00 p.m. to 1:45 p.m.

This seminar is free.  Pre-registration is required. Register in advance at this Zoom link. Maximum capacity is 100 participants.

This session features two research papers on how information informs risk estimates and policies. The first one examines the trade-offs between target fund levels and insurer insolvency risk faced by deposit insurer. The authors develop a model and estimate the sizable gap between an optimal target fund level for the FDIC (as an example) and the official FDIC target fund. The paper also explores funding strategies to achieve alternative target fund levels.  The second paper uses a new approach to estimate and decompose the weight forecasters place on past predictions in expectation formation process. Forecasters put a weight on past predictions and the persistence of old information is affected by the size of new economic shocks. The author compares the optimal weight placed on past predictions to information frictions over time for US professional forecasters and find that explore the relationship between the optimal weights the magnitude of shocks.

Chair: Wenhua Di (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)


Bridging the Gap between the Deposit Insurance Fund Target Level and the Current Fund Level
Alexander B. Ufier (FDIC), Charles Kusaya (Zimbabwe Deposit Protection Corporation), John P. O’Keefe (Independent Consultant)


Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks
Constantin Burgi (St. Mary’s College of Maryland)

Discussants: Kathleen McDill (FDIC); Chad Fulton, (Federal Reserve Board)

Small Banks: Transition and Crisis

Wednesday, December 9th, 2020

Friday Virtual Seminar Series
Friday December 18, 2020
12:00 p.m. to 1:45 p.m.

This seminar is free. Please register at this Zoom link.
We can welcome up to 100 participants.

This session focuses on challenges faced by the banking sector, especially small banks, in the past 20 years. The first paper focuses on loss given default of acquisition, development, and construction loans during the Great Recession and its aftermath (2008-2012) and how those loan defaults contributed to numerous small bank failures. The second paper illustrates how monetary policy affects banks’ decisions to enter local deposit markets and how entry barriers in those markets affect establishments of differing sizes. The third paper explores how the tightening of anti-money laundering enforcement imposed disproportionate costs on small banks, shifting the local banking composition towards larger banks and how that shift affects measures of local economic well-being. The fourth paper studies the effects of changes in business credit during the COVID-19 pandemic comparing the behavior of lenders to that of borrowers during the pandemic compared to prior years and examining differences in credit issued to small and large borrowers, in both good and bad economic conditions.

Chair: Alexander B. Ufier (FDIC)

Loss Given Default for Acquisition, Development and Construction Loans
Lynn Shibut (FDIC), Emily Johnston-Ross (FDIC), Joseph Nichols (Federal Reserve Board)

The Bank Entry Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
Stefan Lewellen (Penn State University), Emilio Bisetti (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Stephen A. Karolyi (Carnegie Mellon)

Anti-money Laundering Enforcement, Banks, and the Real Economy
Pablo Slutzky (University of Maryland), Senay Agca (George Washington University), Stefan Zeume (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

Bank Lending during the Covid-19 Crisis
Teng Wang (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Allen N. Berger (University of South Carolina), Christa H.S. Bouwman (Texas A&M University), Lars Norden (Getulio Vargas Foundation), Raluca A. Roman (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Gregory F. Udell, (Indiana University)

Discussants: Kayla Freeman (University of Georgia), Freddy Cama (Bay Atlantic University), Heath Witzen (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau), Chacko George (FDIC)

Small Banks: Transition and Crisis

Economic Well-Being and the Supplemental Poverty Measure – Improvements and Expansion in 2021 and Beyond

Thursday, December 3rd, 2020



Friday December 11, 2020, 12-1:45pm ET

This seminar is free.  Pre-registration is required. Register at this Zoom link.
Up to 100 participants.

How can economic well-being and poverty be measured? Ten years ago an interagency technical working group produced guidelines for a supplement to the official poverty measure. This measure is referred to as the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), and for several years now has been published as a product of collaboration by researchers at the BLS and Census Bureau with support from the SPM Interagency Technical Working Group for Implementation (ITWG-SPM).  In this session, researchers from the Census Bureau and BLS will describe planned improvements in the SPM and extensions to include data from more surveys.

Chair:  Connie Citro, National Academy of Sciences

Improvements to the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure for 2021
Liana E. Fox & Trudi Renwick* (Census Bureau)

Changes to the Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds for 2021
Thesia Garner*, Juan Munoz, & Jake Schild (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The Supplemental Poverty Measure Using the American Community Survey
Brian Glassman & Liana Fox* (Census Bureau), Jose Pacas (U of Minnesota)

Calculating the Supplemental Poverty Measure in the Survey of Income and Program Participation
Lewis Warren*, Liana Fox, Ashley Edwards (Census Bureau)

Discussant: David Johnson (University of Michigan)

(*designated speaker)

Economic Well-Being and the Supplemental Poverty Measure – Improvements and Expansion in 2021 and Beyond

Economics of Vaccines for COVID-19

Sunday, September 20th, 2020


Monday October 5, 2020
5:00 pm to 6:30 pm

This Zoom webinar is free. Register at:
https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUpdu6oqDItG9yhU_fH7ug8nen7y9eqYKtR. Maximum # of participants is 100.

Presenters:
Bhaven Sampat, Associate Professor, Department of Health Policy and Management, Columbia University and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ali Moghtaderi, Assistant Professor, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University

Bhaven Sampat will discuss how research on vaccines and viruses at the National Institutes of Health has accelerated the progress towards an effective vaccine. Bhaven’s expertise on how public research is translated into private sector results will help us understand the roots of ongoing efforts by companies, such as Moderna, Astra Zeneca, Merck, Johnson and Johnson, and Pfizer. He has published several articles on how public R&D investment affects private patenting and related topics in Review of Economic Studies, Science, and the American Economic Review

Ali Moghtaderi will discuss issues related to public acceptance of a vaccine, once an effective vaccine has been developed. Ali’s expertise in vaccines, especially Americans’ perspectives on taking the coronavirus vaccine, will help us understand reasons Americans have for not participating. He has published several articles on the economics of vaccines and other health economics topics in Health Affairs, JAMA, and Medical Care.

Leo Sveikauskas, economist at U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will moderate this discussion.

Q&A will take place after the presentations.

Economics of Vaccines for COVID-19

Mon 7/27: Online Panel “Housing, Homelessness, and the Pandemic”

Tuesday, July 21st, 2020

Monday, July 27, 5 – 6:30pm (EST)

REGISTER in ADVANCE for LINK and PASSWORD: jack.ventura@verizon.net

  • Andrew Aurand, Vice President for Research, National Low Income Housing Coalition
  • Martha Galvez, Principal Research Associate, Urban Institute

According to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, there are over 600,000 homeless people in the U.S., at least a third of whom are living on the streets.  The lack of affordable housing and HUD reductions to subsidized low-income housing is now exacerbated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The risk of evictions has risen sharply in the face of massive unemployment.

The seminar panelists will discuss the housing and homeless crises, the impact of the pandemic and innovative policy proposals to house vulnerable people.

  • Dr. Andrew Aurand leads the research team and publishes NLIHC’s annual reports on housing – The Gap and Out of Reach – and policy research. 
  • Ms. Martha Galvez’ research focuses on housing policy intervention impacts on families at the Urban Institute’s Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center.

The Zoom seminar is free, but pre-registration is required.

Please email SGE seminar co-chair Jack Ventura at jack.ventura@verizon.net and provide your name and email.

Pre-registrants will receive sign-in information before the Zoom seminar.

Fri 5/29 noon: Online Panel “Disparities in Access to Higher Education”

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Friday, May 29, 12:00 pm. – 1:15 pm (EST)

Zoom Webinar – Sign-up here: https://forms.gle/PGouSSGN8f34RhwM8

This webinar presents research on policies that aim to reduce the racial gap in college graduation rates, merit-based admissions to postsecondary institutions, interventions that improve college access for low-income students, and the relationship between college costs and the parental labor supply. The panelists will present their papers in the following order with a time reserved for Q&A at the end.

Understanding Equity Gaps in College Graduation Tomas Monarrez, Urban Institute

Closing the Gap: The Effect of Reducing Complexity and Uncertainty in College Pricing on the Choices of Low-income Students C.J. Libassi, College Board

Admissions Policies, Cohort Composition, and Academic Success: Evidence from California Michel Grosz, Federal Trade Commission

Hope for the Family: The Effects of College Costs on Maternal Labor Supply Breno Braga, Urban Institute

Mon 10/7 eve: Sinclair and Stone on “Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020”

Monday, September 30th, 2019

Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020
Monday, October 7, 2019 5:45 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.
Rm 483 Ford House Office Building
2nd and D Streets, SW
Washington, DC 20515
Metro: Federal Center SW Station

Panelists:
Dr. Tara Sinclair, Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University
Dr. Chad Stone, Chief Economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Light refreshments will be served at 5:45 pm, and the seminar begins at 6:00 pm.    The seminar is free but please email Mel Sacks at MelSacks@verizon.net for reservations. After panelists have made their presentations, time will be available for Q&A and discussion.

According to the IMF World Economic Outlook global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 percent in 2020. However, possible further disruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, continued conflicts with Iran, the slowdown in China, uncertainties of Brexit on Britain and the European Union, the economic effects of global warming, or other contingencies may seriously affect growth prospects. In the U.S. a tariff war, especially with China, may help bring about a recession in 2020.

Dr. Chad Stone and Dr. Tara Sinclair will explore the possibilities of recession occurring in the U.S. or internationally in 2020. Please join us for this interesting evening.